Credit frameworks for new products and loss forecasting for a $50B+ consumer book

Situation

A bank launching new consumer products has to set credit policy with no performance history of its own, and then defend those policies to its regulators and its own stress-testing process. Citizens was doing both at once: launching new products while owning CCAR and loss forecasting for a $50B+ consumer book.

Approach

• Designed credit frameworks for new products, including Education Refinance and merchant financing for the Apple iPhone Upgrade Program.
• Owned CCAR and loss forecasting, improving forecast accuracy and model governance.
• Drove credit policy optimizations across the portfolio using statistical modeling.
• Managed regulatory relationships and consumer-portfolio compliance with a team of more than 40 people.

Result

New products launched with defined credit frameworks, and CCAR and loss forecasting gained improved accuracy and governance.

Relevance for clients

Launching a new product is when credit policy matters most, because there's no history to lean on. Choosing proxies, test-and-learn design and monitoring triggers determines whether the first vintages are a lesson or a loss.